Small boats creating large waves for the critical mineral sector
The critical mineral series - Part 1
This story begins back in 2010 when a Chinese fishing boat collided with the Japanese Coast Guard in the South China Sea over a dispute between islands that both counties claimed. The collision resulted in Japanese authorities arresting the Chinese vessel’s captain, China responded by unofficially halting exports of rare earth minerals to Japan which threatened to cripple Japan’s automotive and electronics industries which were a vital part of the manufacturing process for these industries.
China had developed a choke hold on these rare earth minerals and the export controls that China had placed on these rare earth minerals sent shockwaves into Japanese industries which were dependent on China to import an estimated 90% of these minerals for those industries. After China implemented these export controls over the following year, some rare earth minerals went up ten times in price. Strategies to replace and develop critical mineral supply chains in the west had begun.
Western Governments and policy makers had quickly realised at that time that China had built a monopoly on rare earth minerals that could be used to blackmail the West. China has used tactics of tax breaks and heavily subsidising the critical mineral and rare earth industry to push down expenses for Chinese projects, so that it was not economically viable for other countries to mine or process them. This had resulted in some critical minerals and rare earths not currently reflecting their true prices as China had maintained a grip of over 70% of the world’s production and 90% of the processing of the minerals through keeping their prices low and keeping the competition away. Western mining companies looking to produce and process these minerals have had difficulty financing mining projects for these minerals which has not been viable without government grants (or even with Government support) or institutional investment support which had not shown up.
In 2010, Lynas Corporation Limited (the third largest rare earth company in the world with a 5.6 billion US Marketcap) now known as Lynas Rare Earth's was struggling to compete with China’s tactics. In 2011, a Japanese company made the first move to escape China's Web as Japan’s Sojitz Corporation provided 250 million US of funding to Lynas and agreed to buy their future production. China attempted to continue to use the same tactics to further push down mineral prices to make it even more uneconomically viable but it was not successful. Japan’s dependence on Chinese rare earths has dropped from 90% at the time of the incident in 2010 to an estimated 60% today... yes this story is early and the rare earth sector is depressed in the West with few projects able to stand on their own, yet many minerals are identified as critical by the West.
Source: Tivan
Western Critical Mineral Strategies
Western Critical Mineral Strategies are now in full motion and looking to accelerate as the current Cold War accelerates. The US Inflation Reduction Act provides 394 Billion US of industry support including 31 billion US to reduce operating costs for producing critical minerals. Alongside huge tax credits and incentives that can only be claimed if organisations prove their products source at least 50% of their critical minerals from Western sources (which will increase to a higher % in 2025) produced at certain standards with new technology aimed towards renewable energy . ‘Green’ minerals and Western produced critical minerals will be a future focus for the Western world. Australia’s Labour Government has modelled the US Inflation Reduction Act with their own “Future Made in Australia Act” which will contain grants, loans and tax incentives to encourage the domestic production of critical minerals and renewable energy technologies if they win the next election.
Government grants
In recent years, governments have started to increase government funding into critical mineral companies to reduce the stranglehold that China has built in mining and processing. Under the US defence production act, the US can invest in allied countries critical mineral sectors. In 2022, the Pentagon provided Lynas a 120 million US grant to build a processing facility in Texas. It will be operational in 2025 to process heavy rare earths and will become the first heavy rare earth processing facility outside of China. Australian Strategic Minerials received a letter of intent from the US for a debt funding package for 250 million US and had already received 250 million US in preliminary funding from the Australian Government. Australia also recently announced that it would provide up to 550 million AUD to Arafura Rare Earths for a combined rare earths mine and refinery in the countries Northern Territory alongside other support for many other projects. The Australian Government also plans to provide Geosciences 566 million AUD to map out critical mineral and rare earth deposits across Australia.
Divestment of shares
Western governments are making China divest their shares in strategic critical mineral companies. For example, recently the Australian federal treasurer ordered five international companies linked to China to divest their shares in a strategically crucial Australian heavy rare earths project, following advice from the Foreign Investment Review Board, and days later the company suffered a cyber attack.
Canada has recently blocked strategic access to critical minerals to China and similar initiatives are underway in America to reduce dependence on non-allied countries. Canada had concerns about the security implications from allowing rare earth elements to leave Canada for China as they recently blocked a deal of the company-Vital Metal’s. Part of the Vital Metals deal with Chinese company Shenghe included the sale of their shares for a 10% stake. Canadian foreign investment laws gave government officials the authority to block the investment and transaction, as it was viewed as detrimental to the countries economic outlook. In a recent interview with Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Trade Minister Mary Ng drew a line in the sand saying "We need to be extremely vigilant, there is no ambivalence when it comes to the alignment between the U.S. and Canada on China”.
This week, the Philippines (which is the second largest global producer of nickel) announced that they are looking for new investments to further develop their nickel reserves. The country had received significant investment interest from China but appears to be pulling away and favouring US investment along with a critical minerals agreement which would give the country access to US tax credits. The US are yet to sign the deal due to a reluctance to sign before the upcoming election.
Chinese Government Regulations
This week the Chinese government has approved new regulations governing a group of 17 rare earth minerals, bringing them under state control in fear of national security concerns, which include critical minerals used in cutting-edge semiconductors, electric vehicles, military equipment, and wind turbines. This will come into effect on October 1st 2024, which will make these rare earth minerals in China become nationalised and under state control with the State Council to establish a rare earth product traceability information system. Last year, China placed export controls on gallium (China has 94 per cent of the world’s gallium resources) and germanium (China has 83 per cent of the worlds germanium).
Tariffs
You have probably heard the increasing talks about new tariffs being placed on Chinese goods. The issue the West now faces through the increasing tariffs placed on Chinese goods, EV’s, semiconductors, and solar products is that China has the tools to respond with their own tariffs and export controls on critical minerals and rare earths that are needed to manufacture these products. If further tariffs are put in place on Chinese goods, it’s possible that China will respond with certain critical mineral export bans and significantly increase export controls which will spike critical mineral prices and push governments into overdrive to make sure western critical mineral mining and processing projects get up and running to be completed as fast as possible. This would likely accelerate, if China and the US are involved in direct conflict which brings us to what is happening in the South China Sea.
“The South China Sea is a crucial link in the ‘global commons’, connecting the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf and Europe. Right now, along with the East China Sea, it is the most contested piece of sea in the world and one of the main reasons for the current anxiety over China's intentions”
Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia
As the tensions in the South China Sea increase, we are one incident away similar to the Japanese incident over the disputed Islands and territory that Japan and China claimed in 2010, that led to export controls on their critical minerals. In the South China Sea, 60% of maritime trade passes through the Indo-Pacific with over 3 trillion of trade, along with containing large oil reserves, and geo-strategic islands.
Vietnam
As Taiwan has gained world wide attention over China’s claims, Vietnam and the Philippines are also showing a strong stance against China’s territorial claims and activities in the South China Sea. Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and the Philippines have been involved in a long territorial dispute with China over territorial claims within the South China Sea. China claims territory of the exclusive economic zones of 7 coastal states, despite a ruling in 2016 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that dismissed China’s claim in the South China Sea. In these disputed territories, in particular the Spratly Islands, China has been building island military bases, airstrips, artificially expanding islands, underground passage ways, and is now looking to send floating nuclear reactors to build up their power in Spratly Islands.
Source: AFP
The Philippines
On June 17 2024, Chinese vessels forcefully blocked a Philippine resupply mission to its isolated outpost at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in which an old warship the Sierra Madre lays. The Sierra Madre was deliberately run aground on the tiny reef in the the Second Thomas Shoal by the Philippine government in 1999 to take a territorial stake in the Spratly Islands, though at the time they had said it was an accident and later changed their position. The decaying Sierra Madre has had soldiers aboard since 1999 and is resupplied every month.
Source: Getty Images / Jay Directo
In the recent incident Chinese personnel on motorboats repeatedly rammed and then boarded two Philippine navy inflatable boats brandishing knives and axes in order to prevent Filipino personnel transferring supplies and firearms to the Sierra Madre and seized the Philippine’s Navy rifles. During the boarding and altercation, a number of Filipino navy personnel were wounded, including one who reportedly lost his right thumb. This is a significant escalation as previously, the Chinese coast guard had just been ramming and using water cannons which sit in the grey area of the Phillipines and US Mutual Defence Treaty (established in 1951) which would force the US to respond if attacked. In 2023, the Philippines and U.S. released new bilateral defense guidelines reaffirming that an armed attack in the South China Sea on Phillipines vessels would invoke mutual defense obligations of the U.S.
On May 12, the Philippines identified 34 vessels around Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands from the Peoples Liberation Army Navy, China Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. This month, China have docked their largest warship ‘CCG 5901’ 800m from the Sierra Madre in the Philipines exclusive economic zone after there were talks between China and the Philipines for de-escalation. A few weeks ago, China has also deployed its second largest aircraft carrier, Shandong.
Source: THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE
Very recently, China has put in place new regulations that effectively allow it to treat any foreign vessels as trespassers in its waters, while the Philippines also has announced a bill looking to allow the Philippines Coast Guard to closely monitor vessels entering its territorial seas and block those illegally entering to counteract China. The US ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson, has called on China to cease its harassment of the vessels operating lawfully in the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone and a upcoming joint naval excercise is also expected between the US and the Philippines.
The Philipines recently filed a claim with the UN to an extended continental shelf to seek recognition of it’s entitlements beyond its 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. Vietnam was also supportive of this action seeking unity together. However, China's foreign ministry said the decision infringed on its sovereign rights and jurisdiction when opposing the Philippines unilateral submission. Vietnam has also started expanding it’s own Island building expansion in the Spratly islands. China is testing other nations limits in the contested waters and islands of the South China Sea and these increasing tensions have led to the Philippines wanting to build much stronger ties with the US.
Source: Philippine Coast Guard
Japanese waters
In the international waters off of Japan in November 2023, China’s Navy has also been accused of using sonar pulses in an incident that caused injury to Australian navy divers. The Australian Defence Department has said the Australian vessel was performing operations in support of UN sanctions against North Korea. Just a month earlier a Chinese combat aircraft came within 5 metres of a Canada surveillance plane also involved in UN sanction enforcement against North Korea. Another incident involved China releasing flares into the flight path of a Australian Defence Force helicopter. In 2022, there was an incident within Australia’s exclusive economic zone (not even in the South China Sea) as a Chinese warship had used a military grade laser on an Australian surveillance flight just to the north of Australia. Last year in October, the Pentagon cited 180 incidents since 2021 whereby Chinese aircrafts had conducted unsafe manoeuvres against US aircrafts including by discharging chaff or flares.
East China Sea
The United States recently engaged in its first multi domain three day exercise ‘Freedom Edge’ with Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea amid growing threats from North Korea and China. Russia has responded by sending it’s Pacific Fleet to join up with three Chinese navy vessels to the same spot days later. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim signed a mutual defense pact, agreeing to come to the other’s aid in the event of an attack.
Currently, the Chinese navy has to sail all the way around the Korean peninsula to get to the Sea of Japan. However, this week Putin mentioned an impending deal between Russia, China, and North Korea that would allow China to sail through the Tuman river, but this would still require massive dredging and widening to make this possible. Suddenly, China would expand into the Sea of Japan and there could be new disputed islands and territory likely using very old maps as evidence that they occupied them at one stage. The US and its allies will be required to stretch its naval resources further as China now has the worlds largest Navy which is rapidly expanding although the US’s navy is technically superior.
Source: Scielo
Taiwan
Just weeks ago, a Taiwanese fishing boat by the name of ‘Dajinman 88’ was intercepted and boarded by the Chinese coastguard. Taiwan attempted to rescue the boat by sending two vessels but they were blocked by the Chinese coastguard who warned Taiwan not to interfere. The boat’s captain and crew were taken.
With all of this increasing conflict and escalation, we are but one miscalculation or escalation away from bringing the US and China into direct conflict. I suspect the conflict that may drag the US in, lays within the Spratly Islands as China, Vietnam, and the Phillipines all ramp up their territorial claims and escalation. A miscalculation on a resupply mission to the Sierra Madre could create large waves for the world and then likely result in a blockade of Taiwan.
For now, the US are reluctant to get involved due to the election but with laws being changed and an increasing military presence everyday, all it will take to bring the US in are for the Phillipines or Vietnam to retaliate to one of these incidents. Western Governments will be forced to significantly increase their military spending if there is no de-escalation. As Niall Ferguson has pointed out, throughout history any great empire that has spent more on servicing their national debt than their military the great empire falls. Military spending in the West must expand rapidly and with a Cold War having the possibility to turn into a hot war, I think Western nations might soon discover why critical minerals have the word critical in them.
Source: Niall Ferguson - US
“Any great power that spends more on debt service than on defence will not stay great for very long”
Niall Ferguson
China has dominated the supply chain for the critical mineral industry for years and now the tide is turning and their monopoly is now closing in on them with new export controls being placed by the West.. Will they let it go peacefully?
China is also now receiving pushback over their territorial claims in the South China Sea. All it will take is one boating incident gone wrong to create shock waves for the critical mineral industry and if a new front in the Cold War is established, the East and West could lead to cutting off parts of their critical mineral industries from each other.
Taking all of this into account, I have searched the world for the lowest market cap critical mineral stock with the best management and discovered the new kid on the block.. Tivan a junior mining company (with a market cap of 65 million US) tackling the dilemma that the West faces, as it seeks to mine and process critical minerals in Australia while also tackling the current storage dilemma for renewable energy and the energy transition.
Tivan
Western critical mineral companies have been closing down and have faced a tough outlook, as there has been difficulties to make critical mineral mining and processing projects viable due to unprofitability caused by China’s huge tax breaks and heavily subsidised critical mineral projects. There has also been difficulty getting finance due to ESG but once Western Countries and their citizens realise that the energy transition can’t happen without more mining and that access to non western geo-strategic critical minerals can be shut off overnight, the wall of money will come flowing in and I plan to be positioned before this happens. Perhaps the key to financing these projects lies with someone who understands finance, who can solve difficult problems, and has a vision of a viable path forward with the energy transition.
Let me introduce you to Grant Wilson, a Finance Titan who over his 25-year career has held senior roles for the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation as Global Head of FX/Macro, founded Civic Capital from 2010 to 2018 a research intensive hedge fund, was a portfolio manager at Moore capital, and currently sits on the the Advisory Board of Exante Data where he was earlier Head of Asia-Pacific.
One day, Grant had noticed a small holding he had in an Australian exploration and development company named ‘TNG Limited’ in a portfolio that he was liquidating. Grant realised that a few things were going wrong with the project and they had gone back to the middle of Australia, which was where Grant had grown up in Alice Springs in the Northern Territory. Grant had said “the representations, particularly on the costs. I obviously have a decent sense of what it takes to get things done out there. They’d also been kicked out of Middle Arm by the NT Government and locals such as Paspaley in Larrakeyah, so that was a red flag for me, and sort of scurried back to the middle of Australia claiming that they could build this project when there’s no infrastructure there”.
This didn’t sit well with Grant by the looks of things, as he knew the industry well and had grown up in Alice Springs. Grant wanted the managing director/CEO and the board out, as he had suspected that shareholders were being taken advantage of. In a masterclass of what is known as shareholder activism, Grant set out to build a larger position in TNG Limited as through building a 5% position would allow him to call for a general meeting through section ‘249D’ in Australia’s Corporations Act 2001. Through joining forces with other shareholders and after a long fight with the support of retail shareholders, Grant was appointed as Executive Chairman of the Company effective as of 28 November 2022 and renamed the company to Tivan Limited.
Grant hastily did a deep dive into TNG and to his demise discovered a “train wreck” of a company. Grant immediately fired the board and terminated all non-essential staff leaving 2 employees from the previous regime. Grant was now in control of a company which was not viable, the only thing it had going for it was having it’s Mt Peak project (which has now been temporarily shelved) which wasn’t a viable way forward, a newly obtained Sandover project, and also a mineral processing technology that TNG owned that did not work. Grant only having a few months before the stock literally imploded to 0, due to what he had discovered, rapidly searched for a path forward and identified the ‘gift that keeps giving’ a Vanadium, Titanium, and Iron mining project held by King River Resources named ‘Speewah’.
Speewah
In Feb 2023, Grant acquired the mining project Speewah for 13.7 million US from King River Resources which hosts the largest reported vanadium in titanomagnetite resources in Australia and one of the largest in the world with also some of the highest vanadium grades returned in the world. Speewah also hosts titanium, iron, contained a Fluoride deposit first discovered in 1905, and is still currently being explored.
On the 16th of December 2023, a new mineral Fluorine (Flourite) was added to the Australian Governments critical mineral list. The acquisition of Speewah’s and it’s Fluorite deposit discovered in 1905 had turned well into Tivan’s favour. Speewah’s Flourite resource currently consists of 37.3 million tones with a high-grade component of 8.6 million tones grading 22.8% calcium fluoride. Fluorite is mainly produced through open pit operations and has two main grades: metallurgical-grade (metspar) for steelmaking and acid-grade (acidspar) for things like EV batteries and semiconductors.
Now, this brings us to Tivan and it's new focus on Fluorite. What’s special about Tivan’s Fluorite you ask? Test work has shown Tivan’s acid-grade Flourspar to have near zero Arsenic F (<1ppm) which is essential for EV Batteries and semiconductors. The largest Flourite mine in the world, the Las Cuevas Fluorspar mine for example, has an Arsenic content of 300ppm making their Fluorite not suitable for EV Batteries or semiconductors. Koura in 2023, signed an agreement with Sojitz (a Japanese company with a market cap of 875 billion US) recommended by Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industries "Program for Promoting Investment in Japan to Strengthen Supply Chains". The world is currently consuming 1 Speewah of Flourspar a year. There is also a multi year pathway for Speewah’s to resource expansion as the world falls in short supply.
China currently produces and consumes two-thirds of the world’s fluorspar. China previously used to export Fluorite to the world but have now started to import and stockpile it due to its requirement for EV Batteries, semiconductors, and military equipment. China will completely deplete its reserves by 2030. As Grant described “China has gone from price maker to price taker”. In December, China’s Ministry of Finance also eliminated a 3% import tariff on acid-grade fluorspar (low arsenic content).
Only last month Sumitomo Corporation (A Japanese giant with a 5 trillion JPY market cap) went into a Strategic Alliance with Tivan for the development and financing of the Speewah Fluorite Project and to be the sole distributor and agent to market Tivan’s commercial grade fluorspar. This has been achieved before a pre feasibility study has been completed, which is unprecedented and they are working towards a binding joint venture which should come before the end of 2024. Tivan are on track to deliver their first commercial production of Fluorite in Q1 2027 only three years from the commencement of the project (it generally takes 15 years for the average mine). Tivan has done everything right from the bottom up working with First Nation people, native land title holders, giving back to communities, being at the forefront of the critical mineral discussion with Governments often appearing next to company’s 100x their marketcap. They are forging the path for critical minerals in Australia and if Tivan executes as planned in record breaking time, it will be the poster child for the critical mineral industry in Australia and likely a case study world wide.
China wants fluorspar due to its:
pivotal role in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EV) as a single new EV car can require up to 45 kilograms of acidspar.
The Photovoltaic panels industry (solar industry) production process also requires large amounts of hydrofluoric acid which is made from Fluorspar.
Fluorspar is also a vital component for semiconductors and although the financial bubbles of the NVIDA’s of the world may collapse, the manufacturing of semiconductors will continue as AI develops over the coming decades.
Military equipment
China Kings Resources Group which is China’s largest fluorspar producer said during an investors panel, that the company expects worldwide demand for fluorspar from the new energy sector to exceed 5 million tonnes in 2030. The Chinese government has added fluorspar onto their own list of strategic mineral resources and China’s Ministry of Finance has cut down the import tax rate for fluorspar in January 2024, aiming to encourage imports of fluorspar-related products and increase stockpiles according its official announcement.
Alongside Western tariffs, China is about to face another issue, as it attempts to maintain it’s dominance over the global EV industry, as they are the dominant producer and consumer of fluorspar but will soon be in structural short supply. So, the only path for critical mineral Flourite which has been trending up.. is for it’s price to continue higher.
Source: Statista
To put things in perspective China will also deplete its reserves by 2030 and if there is a conflict between the US and China Flourite will go parabolic.
Leading countries based on mine production of fluorspar worldwide in 2023 (in 1,000 metric tons)
Source: Statista
Vanadium redux flow batteries
Next, we turn to Speewah’s world class vanadium and their focus on vanadium redux flow batteries (VRFB’s). Tivan has plans to mine their vanadium, process it, and manufacture VRFB’s and export them to the world.
VRFB’s are one of the most promising technologies for large-scale energy storage, due to their long cycle life, excellent recyclability, and low fire risk. All of the solar and wind farms going up around the world have one problem.. they are unable to store this energy for when the sun is shining and the wind isn’t blowing. The current issue with wind and solar farms is that they are unable to provide baseload power to the grid (what coal and gas power plants currently provide). With VRFB’s, the slow release of energy from these batteries contributes to a more consistent power supply. Renewable sources of power such as wind and solar experience fluctuations and VRFB’s will enable the storage of surplus solar and wind, that can be utilised during peak demand periods in the mornings and evenings. Other batteries are subject to a charging cycle but with VRFBs, they can be replenished even when the system is supplying power through using their vanadium electrolyte storage tanks.
VRFB’s were developed and proven effective by Professor Maria Skyllas-Kazacos and her team at the University of New South Wales in the 1980s. Tivan have brought her onboard to Tivan’s technical advisory board. VRFB’s are durable and can be charged and discharged 15,000 to 20,000 times without loss of performance making them the choice of storage for Chinese solar and wind farms, who have already implemented the technology as they last the entire lifecycle of the solar or wind farms. Recent figures show that batteries already account for more than 5% of global demand for vanadium which is set to increase up to 25% over the coming years.
Source: Research Nester
China has been setting new records for their expansion of wind and solar farms. Last year alone, China installed more solar capacity than the US had built in the last two decades. If VRFB’s are one of the solutions for the energy transition guess who controls nearly 80% of the global vanadium market? That’s right Russia and China with the main alternatives in the vanadium market coming from South Africa coming in third with a market share of 15.8% and then fourth Brazil.
Tivan have signed a 20 year partnership with Australia’s National Science Agency the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to build on the previous unviable TNG mineral processing technology. The new TIVAN® Process is 100% owned patented processing technology for titanomagnetite ore bodies and has been tested on Speewah’s own vanadium deposits to develop and commercialise Tivan+ mineral processing technology. Tivan has also signed a strategic partnership with Sumitomo Electric Industries (SEI) to develop the VFRB value chain at scale. SEI is based in Osaka and is the leading manufacturer of VRFB’s outside of China. Tivan has scheduled a technology review for Q3 2024, that will holistically compare the pros/cons of the traditional Salt Roast process vs TIVAN+ and early signs are promising. The review will include input from Tivan's various project partners, including downstream facilitation and offtake.
The Northern Territory Government’s Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct have provided Tivan with a ‘not to deal’ commitment over a specific parcel of land at their precinct. Tivan is proposing to produce vanadium oxides through application of innovative TIVAN+ processing technology from Speewah’s vanadium (and Mount Peake possibly at a later stage), titanium dioxide, and iron oxide produced as by-products. Tivan is in the process of making their facility designs, engineering work, and PFS, and environmental approvals. They plan to build the largest Vanadium Electrolyete Facility outside of China and a TIVAN+ Processing facility to process magnetite concentrate from Speewah’s for the production of titanium, vanadium, and iron and are scheduled to start production in 2029. Tivan are also planning to construct a large-scale Pilot Plant for the TIVAN+ technology in collaboration with CSIRO, which will comprise of mining, benefication and processing operations integrated at the Speewah site.
The next path of action, is to manufacture an industrialisation pathway for VRFB’s to export across the world (with Sumitomo’s worldwide client base I suspect). As Russia/China control 80% of the worlds supply of vanadium any western company wanting to qualify for any tax credits would have to source their ‘green’ VRFB’s from a Western source.. cough cough TIVAN. The potential of this company is truly massive.
Earth AI
In March 2023, Tivan engaged Roman Teslyuk’s Earth AI which uses new artificial predictive exploring and drilling technolgy to discover untapped critical metal deposits at half the cost in a fraction of the time. EARTH AI has an in-house geological team, proprietary cloud computing and an integrated geological AI review and machine learning process, supported by a boots on the ground field assessment approach. Earth AI’s model can predict the exact location of mineral deposits more accurately and their drilling platform can verify deposits much faster, all while being much cheaper.
Earth AI have been engaged for Tivan’s Sandover project acquired in 2022 which had initial copper, lithium and lead targets identified for drilling. Earth AI have already found very promising signs of a vast zone of minorization containing high grade silver and lead on the surface. Tivan’s Sandover project located 100km north of Alice Springs (in the middle of nowhere). Drilling is still to take place shortly but the early signs are very promising looking at their surface and hydrothermal activity. First in March 2024, Earth AI had found high grade lead up to 12.2%Pb returned from surface rock assays. The next month Earth AI came out with more news that they had now discovered high-grade silver at 469ppm Ag located just 500 metres from the lead. As Grant has said it’s “the equivalent of lightning striking twice, at a location that is ideal for project development.”
Source: Tivan
Mineralization at the surface is rare in modern times and suggests the presence of a shallow ore deposit which is much easier and cheaper to mine. Most of these types of discoveries, have been discovered way back in the past or proven unviable. Luck is on Tivans side, as it is 5km from the only railway line that crosses Australia. Grant is already in discussions with potential partners in South Korea should the drilling confirm Tivan's suspicion for a viable major silver/lead projects.
“Above all, there is a now a genuine prospect of discovering a shallow, high-grade, large polymetallic deposit this year. If we are looking at a historic discovery, it will durably alter the trajectory ahead for Tivan, along with the socio-economic contours of central Australia.” Grant Wilson
Tivan is still working towards becoming a free cashflow company but with it’s Fluorite, Sumitomo, relationship with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, relationship with the Australian Government and Australian Government grants they are well on track. The Australian Pension sector is currently valued at 3.9 trillion AUD, they are just looking for ways to deploy this capital. However there are many rules, regulations, and benchmark targets in Australia which causes issues to provide project financing for projects that critical mineral company’s such as Tivan have in motion. I suspect this may be set to change in the coming years. Sometimes, all it takes is a geopolitical shock.
Australia’s largest pension fund Australian Super has built a 12 billion AUD position in critical minerals and are looking to expand this over the next 5 years in lithium, vanadium, rare earths, and critical minerals. The Former Australian Reserve Bank deputy governor Dr Guy Debelle joined the Australian Retirement Trust (300 billion AUD pension fund), as an advisor to it’s investment committee because he was drawn to working in the superannuation sector, as he believes Australia needs “a hell of a lot more infrastructure” in renewables. Dr Debelle has also left Fortescue’s board - a Western Australia green technology, energy and metals company with a marketcap of 67 billion AUD to join Tivan’s (100 million AUD market cap) board in late 2023 . You are essentially getting into Tivan before it becomes large enough for the pensions to get involved with one of the most well connected people in Australia in the pension sector on Tivan’s board. Grant has also previously conducted research in Exante Data on Aussie flows and knows this area well specifically the pension fund sector.
“You can do your due diligence and find about 20 half decent critical mineral prospects - four or five probably going to make massive returns”
- Dr Guy Debelle Nov 2023
The staggering progress since Grant became the executive chair of Tivan in November 2022 is mind blowing.
Tivan, 1M
I suspect Tivan would prefer for there not to be another spike in critical mineral prices as they already have a clear path forward with VRFB’s for the energy transition. Looking out into the world around us, I think that critical mineral prices increasing is a certanty. There are few who can solve problems that the West faces such as the current critical mineral geostrategic dilemma alongside forging a path forward for the energy transition. Tivan’s strategic foresight, contacts, relentlessness to achieve progress and success will take them places they have not yet considered as a role model for the critical mineral industry, as Western and Eastern relationships further take a turn and critical minerals spike. With the US political landscape currently in crisis and with their leadership at it’s weakest until the next election, will the East who are weak internally act strong?
A depressed sector, deteriorating relations, the west’s need for critical mineral companies success, the clean energy transition, world class management, a few investors within the highest levels of geo-strategic western world affairs, all with a tiny 65 million US market cap.. You certainly don’t see an investment like Tivan everyday in which everything lines up for it, while the world deteriorates at the same time.
Will you ride the wave when small boat’s create large waves for the critical mineral sector with Tivan emerging as an renewable energy powerhouse on the other side and will you discover why they are critical?
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Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice.
wow. this must be 4000 words? Might be easier for the reader in smaller bites and sustain a higher level of intrigue. However I got a lot out it. thank you!
Sumitomo market cap is $31 Billion USD, not $5 trillion, LOL